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Mounting signals that the latest leg of the bond market rally has started to reverse fueled hedge fund
strategies last week. Most recent inflation prints outpaced expectations both in the U.S. and the U.K., as
consumer prices rose +1.9% and +2.9% year-over-year in August, respectively. Sovereign bond yields rose
in developed markets, in particular in the U.K, and yield curves steepened somewhat. Meanwhile, equity
markets extended their winning streak both in developed and emerging markets.
Such developments have been largely supportive for hedge funds, with all strategies in positive territory last
week. Fixed income arbitrage strategies outperformed, which is in line with our expectations in a rising yield
environment.
Global Macro managers delivered upbeat returns from their short Gilt allocations, despite the
mild loss occurred from short GBPUSD positions.
Macro managers were also fueled by their preference for
European stocks vs. U.S. stocks.
Going forward, we anticipate bond yields to edge higher, amid buoyant macro data releases and
expectations that the Federal Reserve will start shrinking its balance sheet in the coming weeks.
Additionally, we expect the U.S. administration to move forward with tax reforms, which would contribute to
lift Treasury yields. Implications for hedge funds strategies loom large.
Fixed income arbitrage is attractive
in our view (overweight) but we are cautious on directional L/S Credit funds (underweight). CTAs (neutral)
would be vulnerable if trend reversals in FX and Fixed Income do occur.
However, the strategy is currently
a good diversifier if our scenario on bond yields does not materialize. We maintain Event Driven at
overweight, a strategy that we prefer to L/S Equity (neutral). In particular, we are defensive on L/S Equity
market neutral funds (underweight) on the back of expectations of sector rotations triggered by rises in
bond yields. Finally, within the Global Macro space, we maintain a preference for multi-asset and EM funds
compared to discretionary Fixed Income/ FX specialists. Both asset classes are likely to remain challenging
to navigate as central banks remove accommodation.
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