{"id":35865,"date":"2014-07-30T00:05:00","date_gmt":"2014-07-29T22:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/strategie\/preparing-for-higher-yields-downgrading-equities-and-credit\/"},"modified":"2014-07-30T00:05:00","modified_gmt":"2014-07-29T22:05:00","slug":"preparing-for-higher-yields-downgrading-equities-and-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/strategie\/preparing-for-higher-yields-downgrading-equities-and-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"Preparing for higher yields: Downgrading equities and credit"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Macro outlook: Sustained growth and higher bond yields <\/h2>\n<p>Growth has improved substantially. Most of the acceleration we had<br \/>\nexpected is now behind us, but we expect growth to be sustained at<br \/>\ncurrent or slightly higher levels, with the US growing at around 3% through<br \/>\n2017. We think the likelihood of a rise in government bond yields has<br \/>\nincreased and see this as a key aspect of the near-term macro outlook. <\/p>\n<h2>Our recommend allocation and investment themes <\/h2>\n<p><strong>Equities<\/strong>: We downgrade to neutral over 3 months as a sell-off in bonds<br \/>\ncould lead to a temporary sell-off in equities. This makes the near-term risk\/<br \/>\nreward less attractive despite our strong conviction that equities are the<br \/>\nbest positioned asset class over 12 months, where we remain overweight. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Commodities<\/strong>: We expect dispersion within commodities due to different<br \/>\nsupply situations together with backwardation to drive returns and see<br \/>\nopportunities in nickel, zinc palladium and aluminum. However our return<br \/>\nforecast for the asset class as a whole is low and we remain neutral. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Corporate credit<\/strong>: We downgrade to underweight over both 3 and 12<br \/>\nmonths. We think spreads will narrow slightly, but given already tight<br \/>\nlevels, rising government bond yields are likely to dominate the returns,<br \/>\nespecially for US IG credit where spreads are the lowest. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Government bonds<\/strong>: We stay underweight. We expect yields to rise due<br \/>\nto sustained high US growth and accelerating inflation, a decline of<br \/>\ndeflation concerns in Europe and an improving inflation outlook in Japan. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Investment themes<\/strong>: We seek to benefit from sustained growth at current<br \/>\nhigher levels and the return of cash to shareholders. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to Goldman Sachs, the likelihood of a rise in government bond yields has increased and Goldman Sachs see this as a key aspect of the near-term macro outlook&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35863,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1483],"tags":[1809,1743,1856,1859,1659,1671,1681,1651,1437,2087,1693,2068],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35865"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35865"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35865\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35863"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}