{"id":51785,"date":"2016-05-10T01:36:43","date_gmt":"2016-05-09T23:36:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/strategie\/liquidity-across-markets-and-macro-environment\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T00:42:24","modified_gmt":"2019-12-30T23:42:24","slug":"liquidity-across-markets-and-macro-environment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/strategie\/liquidity-across-markets-and-macro-environment\/","title":{"rendered":"Liquidity across markets and macro environment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We review several liquidity proxies.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <strong>A global excess liquidity.<\/strong> As introduced previous in our Record, global excess liquidity can be simply<br \/>\nexpressed by the spread between the growth of the central banks\u2019 aggregated balance sheets and the growth<br \/>\nof global GDP. Derived from the simple equation that MV  PY (M: quantity of money, V: velocity of money,<br \/>\nPY: nominal GDP), excess liquidity is the rate of money creation above the rate of global GDP expansion<br \/>\nwhen assuming the constant velocity of money holds in the equation.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>For FX liquidity index<\/strong>, we use the <strong>Corwin Schultz measure<\/strong> that is a simple liquidity measure of market<br \/>\ntightness using daily high and low prices (we discussed this measure recently, see <em>Daily FX Liquidity: where do we stand ?<\/em>)<\/li>\n<li> For <strong>equity markets<\/strong>, we use the so-called <strong>Amihud Liquidity index<\/strong>. This is a liquidity proxy by measuring<br \/>\nthe market turnover impact on equities returns, was used for S&#038;P 500 Index.<\/li>\n<li> For fixed income, we use the daily spread between bids and offers in US HG segments, so-called MarketExcess\u2019s BASI (a measure of tightness).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>For all these indices, the lower the index, the more liquid the markets are. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-51781\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income.jpg\" alt=\"liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"967\" height=\"346\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Barring the financial crisis of 2008-2009, there has been a continuous series of quick recoveries after turmoil events<br \/>\n(Taper tantrum, SNB intervention), implying the markets have reacted efficiently. Compared to the historical data<br \/>\nsince 2010, broader and general liquidity conditions are not yet in the level to be worried about, except SPX which is<br \/>\ncurrently standing at 0.64 standard deviation above the average illiquidity measure.<br \/>\n<quote>Given the level of z-score for all asset classes, it appears that stocks look more liquid that they are while bonds are not as illiquid as people<br \/>\nbelieve.<\/quote><\/p>\n<p>While many corporate bond traders have seen a diminishing liquidity recently after the inception of Volker Rule, this<br \/>\nmarket by nature has infrequent and thin market activities centered, hence longer periods of time to match buy and<br \/>\nsell orders are normal. BASI remains tight even with the increasing regulations. US Treasuries Bid-Ask spreads also<br \/>\nhave maintained tight since the last crisis. Although other studies of liquidity done by New York Fed show small signs<br \/>\nof deteriorations after the Taper tantrum of 2013, liquidity in US Treasuries market overall remains healthy in terms<br \/>\nof tightness and is far from the distressed level. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/IMG\/jpg\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-51771\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread.jpg\" alt=\"us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"509\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread.jpg 509w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-300x231.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 509px) 100vw, 509px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Private liquidity is an important determinant of global market stability apart from official liquidity that is created by<br \/>\ncentral banks. With a growing international dependency between financial institutions, however, both types of private<br \/>\nliquidity are becoming closely connected to macroeconomic environment over time. Especially, leveraging and<br \/>\ndeleveraging cycle of financial institutions can greatly affect the funding viability and credit conditions. Easier credit<br \/>\nconditions and increased risk-taking help financial sector activities to enlarge the global liquidity, and when the cycle<br \/>\nreverses, deleveraging will reduce liquidity. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-51773\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index.jpg\" alt=\"leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"1257\" height=\"416\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Correlation with leading index and various liquidity indices exhibit a negative sign, which <strong>means less liquidity<br \/>\nperiods coincide with lower business activities in US.<\/strong> Increased correlation between liquidity and business<br \/>\nactivities after the financial crisis shows an amplified role of cyclical movements in financial conditions. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/correlation_with_leading_index.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-51783\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/correlation_with_leading_index.jpg\" alt=\"correlation_with_leading_index.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"464\" height=\"168\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Bottom line,<\/strong> we reviewed various liquidity measures on different markets. These measures point out that current<br \/>\nliquidity for asset classes overall is not in the territory to be worried over yet. We must however acknowledge that<br \/>\nthese indicators are only partial indicators of the market liquidity that is multifaceted. Also, despite decent liquidity<br \/>\nlevels, liquidity risks may have also increased in parallel with more illiquidity spikes and more generally a higher<br \/>\nvolatility of volatility across the board. <div id='gallery-1' class='gallery galleryid-51785 gallery-columns-3 gallery-size-herald-lay-c1'><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/indices_de_liquidites.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"308\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/indices_de_liquidites-470x308.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/indices_de_liquidites-470x308.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/indices_de_liquidites-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/indices_de_liquidites-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/us_treasuries_bid_ask_spread-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/leading_indicator_versus_credit_liquidity_index-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/liquidity_indicies_-_fx_money_base_spx_us_fixed_income-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/correlation_with_leading_index.jpg'><img width=\"464\" height=\"168\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/correlation_with_leading_index.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/correlation_with_leading_index.jpg 464w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/correlation_with_leading_index-300x109.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 464px) 100vw, 464px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market liquidity plays a crucial role in the stability of financial system and central banks across the world pay a close attention to the development of liquidity in all asset classes. In this report, we discuss what do currents liquidity conditions imply for the market health. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1483],"tags":[1655,1671,1813,1651,1807,2103,1803,2091,1677],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51785"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51786,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51785\/revisions\/51786"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}