{"id":55802,"date":"2016-09-13T01:14:37","date_gmt":"2016-09-12T23:14:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/strategie\/who-is-buying-us-equities\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T01:04:20","modified_gmt":"2019-12-31T00:04:20","slug":"who-is-buying-us-equities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/strategie\/who-is-buying-us-equities\/","title":{"rendered":"Who is buying US equities ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>While the S&#038;P 500 continues to brush up against its all-time highs and valuations remain relatively rich, we consider below the profile of US equity<br \/>\ninvestors in light of the different sources of information that are available.<\/p>\n<p>First, note that the excess demand is not emanating from non-resident investors, as they have been net sellers of US equities since the start of 2015<br \/>\n(see left-hand chart below), the EPFR data revealing there have been significant outflows (see left-hand chart below).<\/p>\n<p>According to the Flow of Funds (available up to Q1 2016), there were net outflows from mid-2015 until the end of March 2016 for all US investor<br \/>\ncategories (net outflows totalled $330bn for households, pension funds and mutual funds) and for non-resident investors (net outflows of $173m for rest<br \/>\nof the world). Exchange traded funds were the exception (net inflows totalling $100bn over this period).<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-55794\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents.jpg\" alt=\"cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"1056\" height=\"385\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nThe other data that is available reveals that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> these trends were confirmed over the course of 2016, but that equity purchases by non-resident investors did not decline by as much (Brexit<br \/>\neffect) as indicated by the table below; and<\/li>\n<li> part of the outflows (by non-resident and domestic investors) is in fact being channelled into ETF, a phenomenon also in evidence in the<br \/>\ncredit market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/part_of_the_outflows.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-55796\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/part_of_the_outflows.jpg\" alt=\"part_of_the_outflows.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"734\" height=\"170\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>However, the Flow of Funds remains globally on a downtrend (dotted line in the right-hand chart above), while when it comes to the ownership<br \/>\nstructure for US equities, ETF still occupy a marginal place (5% in 2016).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-55798\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_.jpg\" alt=\"cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"1100\" height=\"334\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>How can one reconcile the net outflows of funds with the rise of US equity indices? The explanation seems to lie on the supply side: the biggest buyers<br \/>\nof US equities have in fact turned out to be the companies themselves&#8230; Quarterly Flow of Funds data reveals that net issuance of US equities was<br \/>\nnegative to the tune of $400bn between 30 June 2015 and 31 March 2016.<\/p>\n<p>In the US, share buybacks are the main conduit for distributing income to shareholders, mainly for reasons to do with the tax system. Since the start<br \/>\nof 2015, what will be observed is that the build up in cash and cash equivalents held by companies has accelerated, while interest rates have held on<br \/>\nlow (facilitating the financing of share buybacks).<\/p>\n<p>The right-hand chart below shows that this trend was still in evidence in the last few quarters, which should be confirmed by the Flow of Funds (due to<br \/>\nbe published on 16 September). In Europe, by contrast, no such phenomenon has been observed (dividends are favoured for rewarding shareholders<br \/>\nin this geography).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-55800\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price.jpg\" alt=\"equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"1084\" height=\"411\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>What should we expect going forward? Further share buybacks are less of a given over the short to medium term, as companies are already leveraged<br \/>\nto the hilt, and especially since the Federal Reserve is intent on normalising its monetary policy. As supply continues to stabilise, performances by US<br \/>\nequities will come to depend increasingly on demand&#8230;<div id='gallery-1' class='gallery galleryid-55802 gallery-columns-3 gallery-size-herald-lay-c1'><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_of_funds_into_out_of_equities_by_non-residents-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/part_of_the_outflows.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"170\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/part_of_the_outflows-470x170.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/cumulative_flow_into_out_of_us_equities_m_-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/equity_indices_-_ratio_market_value_to_index_price-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the S&#038;P 500 continues to brush up against its all-time highs and valuations remain relatively rich, we consider below the profile of US equity<br \/>\ninvestors in light of the different sources of information that are available. First, note that the excess demand is not emanating from non-resident investors, as they have been net sellers&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":55794,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1483],"tags":[1663,1809,1655,1671,1657,1651,1437,1807,2103,2068,1677],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55802"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55802"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55803,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55802\/revisions\/55803"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}