{"id":58010,"date":"2016-11-14T01:32:06","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T00:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/opinion\/trump-victory-a-non-event-for-markets\/"},"modified":"2016-11-14T01:32:06","modified_gmt":"2016-11-14T00:32:06","slug":"trump-victory-a-non-event-for-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/opinion\/trump-victory-a-non-event-for-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump victory: a non-event for markets?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><quote><br \/>\nTrump wins US election and caught pollsters and forecasters on the wrong foot<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>  With 92% of the votes counted at the time of writing, Donald Trump has already<br \/>\nsecured 279 electoral votes, above the 270 threshold to win.<\/li>\n<li>  Republicans also kept control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. A<br \/>\nunified government has been very rare over the recent decades.<\/li>\n<li>  Trump\u2019s initial statements reassured markets, calling for unity and pledging that he will be the \u201c<em>president of all Americans<\/em>\u201d.<br \/>\n<\/quote><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>A contained rise in risk aversion<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>  The Trump victory translated into a limited fall in risk assets so far. The overall<br \/>\nimpact is rather muted and, to the relief of most investors, below expectations.<br \/>\nSome EM markets such as Mexico are experiencing higher adverse movements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>  10y bond yields seem to be firming, probably translating concerns over<br \/>\nexpansionary fiscal policies and\/ or protectionism and their impact on inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Long term fiscal profligacy and protectionism should support growth and inflation<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>  Trump\u2019s campaign promises are unlikely to be fully implemented by the Congress<br \/>\ndespite unified government. In particular the Congress might be reluctant to ratify<br \/>\nmeasures that would sharply widen the budget deficit. Some expansionary fiscal<br \/>\npolicies such as infrastructure spending are nonetheless likely to be adopted.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>  The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike<br \/>\nlikely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its<br \/>\nmind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen\u2019s four-year mandate as chair<br \/>\nof the Board of Governors will last until 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>  On top of increased protectionism, public spending could fuel inflation in the medium<br \/>\nterm. We maintain US inflation breakevens at Overweight. Increased protectionism<br \/>\nleads us to stay Underweight EM equities and to prefer Domestic over Global stocks<br \/>\nwith regards to US equities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>  The US Dollar could be supported by the repatriation of offshore profits by American<br \/>\ncorporates, under plans by Donald Trump for a tax cut on such proceeds.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen\u2019s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will last until 2018.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58008,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1480],"tags":[1655,2073,1854,1943,1651,1437,2087,1672],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58010"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58010\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}