{"id":59637,"date":"2017-01-09T00:55:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-08T23:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/strategie\/buy-in-january-sell-in-may-the-seasonality-of-commodity-performance\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T01:23:31","modified_gmt":"2019-12-31T00:23:31","slug":"buy-in-january-sell-in-may-the-seasonality-of-commodity-performance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/strategie\/buy-in-january-sell-in-may-the-seasonality-of-commodity-performance\/","title":{"rendered":"Buy in January, Sell in May? The seasonality of commodity performance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em> <strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> Commodity outperformance skewed to the first half of calendar year<\/li>\n<li> Research also finds the Commodites Supercycle is a myth<\/strong> <\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>ETF Securities found that adopting a trading strategy of buy in January and sell in May in a<br \/>\ncommodity basket delivered compelling returns over a 24-year-period. <\/p>\n<p>Conversely, August<br \/>\nthrough to November tended to be particularly weak months for commodities.<br \/>\nJames Butterfill, Head of Research and Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, said allcommodity<br \/>\nbaskets and the agricultural, and industrial metals sectors historically showed the<br \/>\nstrongest signs of early year performance.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Our research confirms that the \u2018sell in May and go away\u2018 adage does not hold water for<br \/>\nequities. However, adopting a trading strategy of buy in January and sell in May for<br \/>\ncommodities has a better statistical outcome than single-month holding strategies,\u201d<\/em> he said.<\/p>\n<p><quote>Researchers modelled a trading strategy where an all-commodities basket is purchased at the<br \/>\nbeginning of January and sold at the end of April and then replaced with cash for the<br \/>\nremainder of the year. It delivered annualised returns since 1991 of 6.8% compared to 6.6%<br \/>\nfor equities.<\/quote><\/p>\n<p>ETF Securities found that all-commodity baskets, the agricultural sector and industrial metals<br \/>\nsector showed the strongest signs of seasonality. Gold was impervious to seasonal effects and<br \/>\npetroleum\u2019s performance was too volatile to perform well.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThe causes are complex, but we believe cooler weather in the Northern Hemipshere, and early year inventory decisions are factors. But it is intriguing that these are not priced in,\u201d<\/em> concludes James.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-59635\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities.jpg\" alt=\"average_total_return_in_commodities_equities.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"606\" height=\"426\" \/><\/a><div id='gallery-1' class='gallery galleryid-59637 gallery-columns-3 gallery-size-herald-lay-c1'><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/average_total_return_in_commodities_equities-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most commodities outperformance is skewed to the early<br \/>\nmonths of the calendar year, according to ETF Securities, one of the world\u2019s leading<br \/>\nindependent providers of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1483],"tags":[1809,1655,1744,1651,2087,1746,2021,2068],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59637"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59637"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59637\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59638,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59637\/revisions\/59638"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}