{"id":62765,"date":"2017-05-03T01:16:00","date_gmt":"2017-05-02T23:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/opinion\/government-bonds-caution-ahead\/"},"modified":"2019-12-31T01:54:56","modified_gmt":"2019-12-31T00:54:56","slug":"government-bonds-caution-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/opinion\/government-bonds-caution-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Government bonds: caution ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The business-friendly Emmanuel Macron\u2019s clear first-round presidential election<br \/>\nwin reduced near-term European political risk. Markets are now pricing in nearly<br \/>\n1.5 additional quarter-percentage-point rate increases this year, but we think they<br \/>\nstill underestimate the Fed\u2019s resolve to tighten policy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-62763\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017.jpg\" alt=\"fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"702\" height=\"623\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Focus returns to the Fed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Fed has made clear it views the U.S. economy as nearing the central bank\u2019s employment and inflation goals and accordingly<br \/>\nplans to stay on a gradual normalization path. We expect global government bond yields to rise \u2013 and prices to fall \u2013 as market<br \/>\nexpectations catch up to our base case of two more Fed rate increases this year.<\/p>\n<p>Strong demand for income and still-accommodative central bank policies in much of the world should help keep rises in yields<br \/>\nmoderate, in our view. We do expect to see a steepening of the yield curve over time, with very long term yields in particular set<br \/>\nto rise as we move from a period of accelerating growth to a new phase of sustained economic expansion.<\/p>\n<p>We see yields on bonds with durations of five years or less as vulnerable in the near term to any jumps in Fed tightening<br \/>\nexpectations, and we are underweight U.S. Treasuries and European sovereign bonds. Bullish sentiment following the French vote<br \/>\nsparked selling of safe-haven assets. Rising European growth and inflation, and the prospect of a less supportive European<br \/>\nCentral Bank (ECB), may help push European and global yields higher. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to stay on hold until we<br \/>\nsee meaningful Japanese growth and inflation.<div id='gallery-1' class='gallery galleryid-62765 gallery-columns-3 gallery-size-herald-lay-c1'><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-640x426.jpg 640w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/fed_interest_rate_rises_implied_by_markets_2017-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Geopolitical forces suppressing global government bond yields have somewhat<br \/>\ndissipated after the French first-round vote. We see Fed rate rise expectations<br \/>\nreturning as a bond market driver, justifying a cautious stance on sovereign debt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1480],"tags":[1655,2073,1943,1651,2214,2087,1776,2068],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62765"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62765"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62765\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62766,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62765\/revisions\/62766"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}