{"id":74485,"date":"2018-10-17T01:20:37","date_gmt":"2018-10-16T23:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/note\/bofa-merrill-lynch-october-fund-manager-survey-finds-investors-most-bearish-on-global-growth-since-2007\/"},"modified":"2018-10-17T01:20:37","modified_gmt":"2018-10-16T23:20:37","slug":"bofa-merrill-lynch-october-fund-manager-survey-finds-investors-most-bearish-on-global-growth-since-2007","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/note\/bofa-merrill-lynch-october-fund-manager-survey-finds-investors-most-bearish-on-global-growth-since-2007\/","title":{"rendered":"BofA Merrill Lynch October Fund Manager Survey finds investors most bearish on global growth since 2007"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li> When asked how the global economy will develop over the next year, net 38% of respondents expect deceleration, the worst outlook on global growth since Nov. \u201808<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> FMS investors think the USD is very overvalued, notably against EM currencies which are seen as never having been more undervalued in survey history<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Looking at corporate earnings, net 35% of respondents indicated they do not expect an improvement of 10% or more in the next year, a significant swing from net 35% expecting improvement from February\u2019s survey<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> A net 20% of investors surveyed think global profits will deteriorate over the next 12 months, a 2-year low and major reversal from January\u2019s survey, when a net 39% noted they expected an improvement<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Risks<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> A trade war (35%) remains the biggest tail risk concern for FMS investors, although conviction fell for the third month in a row as concerns about Quantitative Tightening rise (31%); a China slowdown comes in third (16%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> \u201cLong FAANG+BAT\u201d (32%) remains the most crowded trade identified by investors for the ninth straight month, followed by \u201cShort US Treasuries\u201d (19%) and \u201cLong S&#038;P 500\u201d (18%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Asset allocation<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> Allocation to global equities holds steady at net 22% overweight, close to July\u2019s recent low of net 19% overweight<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Investor allocation to US equities reverses much of the climb from the past two months, falling 17ppt to net 4% overweight; US loses out to Japan as most favored equity region globally<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Allocation to bonds slips 5ppt to net 50% underweight, but still firmly off the record low of net 69% underweight in February<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>\u201cInvestors are bearish on global growth,\u201d<\/em> said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist, <em>\u201cbut not bearish enough to signal anything but a short-term bounce in risk assets.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Average cash balance holds steady at 5.1%, well above the 10-year average of 4.5%, as investors stay bearish. A record 85% of survey respondents think the global economy is in the late cycle, 11ppt above prior highs in Dec. \u201807<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":74483,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1481],"tags":[1655,1657,1651,1437,1724,1999,2091],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74485"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74485\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}