{"id":76783,"date":"2019-01-24T06:49:43","date_gmt":"2019-01-24T05:49:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/strategie\/why-merger-arbitrage-should-continue-to-do-well\/"},"modified":"2020-01-01T22:44:26","modified_gmt":"2020-01-01T21:44:26","slug":"why-merger-arbitrage-should-continue-to-do-well","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/strategie\/why-merger-arbitrage-should-continue-to-do-well\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Merger Arbitrage should continue to do well"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The market rebound since end of December is in stark contrast with the adverse conditions that prevailed in December<br \/>\nfor risk assets. In our view, the main reasons behind the turnaround are related to: i) a softer monetary policy<br \/>\nstance from the Fed, which is likely to be confirmed at the January 29-30th FOMC meeting, ii) easing trade<br \/>\ntensions between the U.S. and China, and iii) the announcement of economic stimulus measures in the latter.<br \/>\nThis suggests that the market recovery can continue in the short term. However, in our view, caution prevails in<br \/>\nthe medium-term, as recession risks in the U.S. and Europe have risen and Brexit uncertainty remains high.<\/p>\n<p>To navigate such unstable conditions, there is a limited range of \u201call weather\u201d strategies. Merger Arbitrage and<br \/>\nFixed Income Arbitrage (including L\/S Credit) have demonstrated their ability to navigate such a difficult year<br \/>\nlike in 2018, when most asset classes delivered negative returns. We focus on Merger Arbitrage and why we<br \/>\nthink it could continue to do well in 2019, below are three main reasons: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <strong>U.S. M&#038;A activity has started 2019 with a bang.<\/strong> The announcement that Bristol-Myers Squibb is planning<br \/>\nto acquire Celgene for 71bn USD boosted M&#038;A volumes after a deceleration in Q4. It highlights the fact<br \/>\nthat the M&#038;A wave in the health care industry remains unabated, offering opportunities for Merger Arbitrage<br \/>\nmanagers to deploy capital and diversify portfolios. The recent 57bn USD Shire vs. Takeda merger<br \/>\ncontributed to fuel Merger Arbitrage returns in Q4 while markets were struggling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> <strong>The strategy is structurally defensive.<\/strong> Statistical analysis points to a low market beta (approximately 10%)<br \/>\nand long allocations to quality and low beta stocks. It contrasts with L\/S Equity strategies, which in aggregate<br \/>\nhave a higher beta (40%) and short allocations to both quality and low beta stocks. Historically, Merger<br \/>\nArbitrage strategies have proved to be extremely resilient when equity markets are in risk-off mode.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> <strong>Recent adverse market movements and new deal announcements led to a widening in deal spreads.<\/strong> They<br \/>\ncurrently stand close to 7%, which is above the average since mid-2016. Deal spreads can nonetheless<br \/>\nmove rapidly, and current levels should rather be seen as an attractive entry point to reinforce the strategy<br \/>\nin portfolios than a structural factor supporting the strategy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.next-finance.net\/http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" aligncenter size-full wp-image-76777\" src=\"IMG\/jpg\/-72.jpg\" alt=\"-72.jpg\" align=\"center\" width=\"1131\" height=\"438\" \/><\/a><div id='gallery-1' class='gallery galleryid-76783 gallery-columns-3 gallery-size-herald-lay-c1'><figure class='gallery-item'>\n\t\t\t<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"herald-popup\" href='http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72.jpg'><img width=\"470\" height=\"313\" src=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-470x313.jpg\" class=\"attachment-herald-lay-c1 size-herald-lay-c1\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-470x313.jpg 470w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-414x276.jpg 414w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-640x426.jpg 640w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-130x86.jpg 130w, http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/72-187x124.jpg 187w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/figure>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To navigate such unstable conditions, there is a limited range of \u201call weather\u201d strategies. Merger Arbitrage and<br \/>\nFixed Income Arbitrage (including L\/S Credit) have demonstrated their ability to navigate such a difficult year<br \/>\nlike in 2018, when most asset classes delivered negative returns&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":76777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1483],"tags":[1687,1743,1655,1723,1888,1690,1651,2214,1807,2068,1672],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76783"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76783"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76784,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76783\/revisions\/76784"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}