{"id":80591,"date":"2019-06-19T07:29:35","date_gmt":"2019-06-19T05:29:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/note\/bofa-merrill-lynch-june-fund-manager-survey-bears-all-around\/"},"modified":"2019-06-19T07:29:35","modified_gmt":"2019-06-19T05:29:35","slug":"bofa-merrill-lynch-june-fund-manager-survey-bears-all-around","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/note\/bofa-merrill-lynch-june-fund-manager-survey-bears-all-around\/","title":{"rendered":"BofA Merrill Lynch June Fund Manager Survey: Bears all around"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Allocations and valuations<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> Average cash balance soars to 5.6% from 4.6% for each of the last three months, marking the biggest jump in cash since the debt ceiling crisis in 2011; allocation to cash jumps 10ppt from last month to net 43% overweight<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Allocation to global equities drops 32ppt to net 21% underweight, the lowest allocation to equities since March 2009 and second biggest one-month drop on record<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Bond allocation soars 12ppt to net 22% underweight, the highest level since September 2011, as dovish central banks, falling inflation expectations, and a risk-off sentiment drive interest rates lower<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> This month\u2019s survey finds investors have rotated from cyclical plays (equities, banks, Europe, tech) into defensive ones (staples, utilities, bonds and cash)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> A record net 60% of investors surveyed find the US dollar overvalued, up 16ppt from last month<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Macro expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> FMS global growth expectations collapsed by a record 46ppt from last month, with net 50% investors surveyed expecting global growth to weaken over the next year; a record high 87% of investors surveyed say the global economy is in the late cycle<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Interest rate expectations have collapsed; in just 8 months, the percentage of investors expecting higher shorter rates has flipped from net 89% to -10%, the lowest level since 2008<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Global profit expectations plummeted 40ppt to net 41% of investors surveyed saying they expect EPS to deteriorate in the next year, the second biggest one-month collapse in the 23-year history of the Fund Manager Survey<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Just 9% of fund managers expect higher global CPI in the next year, down 30ppt from last month and the most bearish inflation outlook since August 2012<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Risks<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> Concerns about a trade war soar, with 56% of investors surveyed naming it the top tail risk to the market, up 19ppt from last month and topping the list for 14 of the last 16 months; other risks cited include monetary policy impotence (11%), US politics (9%) and a slowdown in China (9%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> Long US Treasuries (27%) replaces Long US Tech (26%) as the most crowded trade cited by investors for the first time ever, ahead of Long USD (18%) and Short European equities (9%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>\u201cFMS investors have not been this bearish since the Global Financial Crisis, with pessimism driven by trade war and recession concerns\u201d<\/em> said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist. <em>\u201cThe tactical \u2018pain trade\u2019 is higher yields and higher stocks, particularly if the Fed cuts rates on Wednesday.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Average cash balance soars to 5.6% from 4.6% for each of the last three months, marking the biggest jump in cash since the debt ceiling crisis in 2011; allocation to cash jumps 10ppt from last month to net 43% overweight<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":80589,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1481],"tags":[1809,1655,1657,1651,1437,1724,1999,2091],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80591"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80591\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80589"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/beta.next-finance.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}