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Historically, it has delivered strong returns, causing headaches for advocates of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
\n(\u201cEMH\u201d). Its persistence breaks one fundamental rule of the EMH: if past stock prices help predict future returns,
\nthey do not fully reflect all available information. Research on the causes of Momentum persistence was
\npopularized by Hong and Stein in 1999 (\u201cA Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction
\nin Asset Markets\u201d).<\/p>\n
In recent months, the Momentum risk factor has delivered strong returns, particularly in the U.S. (+7.7% in Q3-
\n2020). It is currently long sectors such as IT, Consumer Discretionary, and a number of defensive sectors (i.e.
\nCommunication Services, Consumer Staples, Health Care) reflecting future growth uncertainty. <\/p>\n
In parallel, it is
\nnegatively correlated to Financials and Energy returns. Looking at its correlation to other risk factors, we see that
\nMomentum has been tantamount to Low Beta for some time. It is also increasingly vulnerable to rises in bond
\nyields. We estimate that a +10bps rise in Treasury yields would drag Momentum\u2019s performance by -2.4%.<\/p>\n
The above suggests that Momentum is vulnerable to richly valued sovereign bonds but at the same time is protected
\nby asset purchases from central banks. The latter have de facto anchored bond yields at current levels. A sharp
\nand sudden rebound in cyclical and\/ or value stocks (i.e. Industrials, Materials, Energy, Financials, etc.) would be
\npainful but seems unlikely due to uncertain economic prospects amid the COVID-19 resurgence. Yet, the relative
\nperformance of Momentum vs. Value has been so spectacular in the past year that we raise caution going forward.<\/p>\n
Factor rotations tend to cause substantial damage to some alternative strategies. CTAs are by construction
\nexposed to the Momentum risk factor but from a cross-asset perspective. A vast amount of L\/S Equity strategies,
\nespecially systematic Market Neutral ones are exposed to Momentum. Our stance on such strategies is currently
\ndefensive. Finally, Event-Driven is among the few strategies that does not bear Momentum risk. <\/p>\n