This post is also available in: 
Français
Turmoil around sovereigns’ solvency and the strong market drop currently observed raise many questions and misunderstandings. Taking a short break to look back at some analysis and themes developed throughout the year seems then appropriate…
FORECASTING
Our review starts with an extremely delicate subject to practice: forecasting. The risky nature of this exercise requires strong convictions and we do not aim to designate here who is right or wrong, but rather to focus on the arguments used by each other at the time forecasts were made. Two articles illustrate conflicting views on the market and deserve attention and rereading in the light of recent events.
Mory Doré and Bob Doll’s views are quite strongly defined; over the same period there were also however rather moderate opinions such as David Shairp’s: article396
ANTICIPATION
Beyond simple market analysis and its potential orientation, some managers also establish strategies based on their expectations. We discovered some major adjustments in particular from fund managers such as Pimco ou University of Texas Investment Management Company.
Also regarding the anticipation matter, we can note that the lack of perfect coordination within the euro zone as well as the risk of a likely internal fracture were already highlighted: article333
RISK MANAGEMENT
Knowing the risk scenarios, how to implement then a hedging strategy to protect existing portfolios? Without simply replicate the big players’ expectations? Two articles address the issue:
We end this brief overview with a question developed by Hans Stote, and that became of major importance today with the U.S rating downgrade and a likely one (at least possible) of those of some European countries including France: 1062
Add Comment