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Over the recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has signaled its willingness to move ahead
with a second rate hike. Such a move would follow the December 2015 decision to raise
policy rates. Statements from Yellen and Fisher left opened the possibility of a rate hike as
soon as September 21st, when the FOMC will meet next. However, the decision is not
straightforward considering the disappointing US GDP growth figures in H1-16 and the
associated falling labor productivity. Financial markets remain somewhat unconvinced but
at the same time they cannot ignore the Fed guidance. As a result, short dated Treasury
yields moved higher and the USD appreciated against major currencies.
Market movements related to the new Fed guidance had a differentiated impact on hedge
fund strategies. CTAs underperformed last week as a result of their long fixed income and
short USD positions. Meanwhile, Global Macro managers outperformed. They benefitted
from their long USD positions, a stance they have maintained for some time on the back of
the growth divergence thesis between the US and the rest of the world.
Interestingly, most funds within each strategy share the same stance on the USD (i.e. most
CTAs in our sample are short USD and most Global Macro are long USD). But there is a
much wider disagreement across Global Macro managers on US fixed income. The
aggregate exposure of Macro managers on the asset class is close to zero, but at the fund
level we see approximately half of the managers being long US bonds and another half
being short. That reflects the conflicting signals on the US economy. A vibrant job market
has fuelled household consumption but this is not reflected in GDP numbers. Economic
expansion was actually pulled back in H1-16 by declining capex as companies are not
investing to expand production capacities.
All in all, we tend to be rather in favor of the CTA stance. We believe that the Fed is
unlikely to move as soon as September. There are simply too many uncertainties regarding
the strength of the US economy to act now. The Fed will probably err on the side of caution
in our view and the USD upward pressure may abate, a support for CTAs over Macro
funds.
Contrasted views on the US Dollar between Global Macro and CTAs
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